New Hurricane Forecast Cone Planned for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
By Brett Romberg
This year, hurricane warnings may look a little different: the National Hurricane Center will be using an experimental cone graphic to show hurricane forecasts.
The new hurricane forecast cone provides additional information that could help business and property owners prepare for an approaching storm.
What Is a Cone Graphic?
Although you might be unfamiliar with the term “cone graphic,” you’ve probably seen one many times before: it’s the familiar graphic that shows the forecasted path of a hurricane or tropical storm. The graphic is useful because it shows the areas that sustained tropical storm force winds and hurricane force winds may affect. The graphic currently in use also shows coastal areas with hurricane and tropical storm warnings and watches.
Here’s a sample from NOAA. (This is NOT a current forecast!)
What’s Different About the New Graphic?
According to NOAA, the new graphic adds inland watches and warnings. Social science research suggests that this information is useful for communicating inland wind risk. Here’s an example of what the new graphic will look like. Once again, this is NOT a current forecast!
When Will the New Graphic Be in Use?
The new graphic is expected to go into use around August 15, 2024. However, the experimental nature of the graphic and the additional time needed to compile information on inland watches and warnings means it may not be available as quickly as the cone graphic currently in use. For this reason, the forecast will continue to use the familiar operation cone graphic. The new graphic should be available around 30 minutes after the advisory release.
What’s in Store This Hurricane Season?
Extra information about storm warnings and watches may prove especially useful during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which AccuWeather warns could be “super charged.” This prediction is based on two factors: historically warm water across the Atlantic Ocean and the La Niña weather pattern, expected for the second half of the hurricane season.
CNN says February sea surface temperatures for the North Atlantic Ocean were more in line with the temperatures expected in July, as they were 1 degree Celsius higher than the typical temperature for the month. Warmer water helps storms form and makes them stronger.
Exactly when La Niña starts may have a major impact on how the hurricane season progresses. The earlier it arrives, the more it will impact the hurricane season. In other words, an earlier start would likely mean a worse-than-normal year, although how much worse is uncertain. According to CNN, an expert from Colorado State University says we’ve never seen a La Niña weather pattern combined with ocean temperatures this high.
How to Prepare for the Hurricane Season
The hurricane season officially starts on June 1, which should give residents and business owners time to prepare.
• Check your insurance coverage. By the time a storm warning or watch is in place, it’s too late to secure additional insurance. Check your coverage ahead of the hurricane season.
• Take an inventory of your home or business. A current inventory will make filing a claim easier. NerdWallet has a list of apps and templates you may like to use to simplify the process.
• Determine whether you need to make repairs or upgrades. For example, if your roof is showing signs of damage, you should handle repairs before a storm approaches. Also assess any trees on your property, pruning or removing them as needed.
• Stock up on supplies. If you’ve experienced a hurricane before, you know how hectic the stores often are when a storm is approaching. Beat the crowds by stocking up on emergency supplies ahead of time.
• Plan your evacuation. Consider a couple of evacuation routes, possible destinations, what you’ll need to take, and ways to stay in touch with family and friends.
• Keep an eye out for hurricane warnings and watches. When hurricane season arrives, you may see the new hurricane cone graphic. Pay attention to local warnings and evacuation orders.
Do you need help reviewing your insurance coverage ahead of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? Century Risk Advisors is here for you. Contact us or reach out to me using the contact information below
Brett C. Romberg, Director of Business Development
Cell: 305.992.8663 Email: Brett.Romberg@centuryra.com